There are few more complex than Iraq problems at this time. Stripping all the mess and we have two options. You're or you go. Keep is not an option. The high cost of the war and the growing opposition of the people and the politicians that are in the middle of Iraq that the coalition of the willing will have to find a way to get out of Iraq.
However before that output can be achieved, there is still the very real possibility of a victory of type can be claimed. Affiliation of what we believe was the purpose of the war (the search for weapons of mass destruction kill Saddam, to stabilize the supply of oil to America, etc.), Iraq has now become the focus and the battlefield to Western values against Islamic extremism. On the one hand we have those who are trying to assemble and form an Iraqi Government with Western values on others have with Al Qaeda and Islamic extremists decided to induce an Islamic Government with Sharia law.
Bets on both sides could not be greater. A clear victory for one or another will give credibility to their policies. For America, a victory will increase its power to a few rogue vis Nations. For Islamic extremists, a victory will stimulate its activities in another Pavilion.
So now that we know we are leaving Iraq, how we leave without delivering victory to Al Qaeda? A victory for United States can only be claimed if three conditions are met:
1. Iraq a free , in the sense that the Government is representative of the people and work for all people.
2. Democratic -that the Government has been elected by the people.
3. Stability -the Government, and therefore Iraq is relatively safe and stable.
Only then it can be argued that extremism in any pretext has been defeated.
It is clear that the Act of staying in Iraq breeches the first two conditions. So, how achieving these goals and at the same time retiring from Iraq? How pull us out and not hand a power vacuum ready made Al Qaeda and extremists to launch a power struggle within Iraq, which possibly the most brutal civil war?
Once again, simplifying the issue we have two options:
1 A sudden withdrawal of troops.
A sudden withdrawal of troops at this time will leave defenseless against the extremists of the Iraqi Government and the armed forces. Iraq plunged into civil war. To have a withdrawal complete, while a structure for the protection of civilians, in my opinion would be a crime far worse than the current invasion of Iraq.
2. A gradual and planned withdrawal of troops.
It is the only real option left on the table. To achieve a planned withdrawal have two other options: make the public withdrawal to the civilian population, or keep the date of a military secret.
A public date (may be different dates for each province) is more beneficial for all concerned. Firstly, a public date confirms the withdrawal of troops from a zone. This will have the immediate effect of any 'freedom fighters' (these Iraqis that really that his country will be held forever.) (These are not Islamic extremists) cease attacks against what they see as occupation troops.
Secondly a public date allows the Iraqi Government to focus its attention in a particular province. An increase in troops in an area has proven to be effective in suppressing extremist violence. Consider for a moment the Iraqi elections - were relatively peaceful. Also consider the recent increase in American troops and the results - the death of U.S. in Iraq has reached a minimum of 8 months.
Thirdly a given date will focus the minds of Iraqi politicians. What further progress-blocking at this time is in fighting between factions. Kurds, Shiites, Sunnis are engaged in a struggle for political power. A firm date for the withdrawal only can provide the necessary impetus for solving arguments. Even the withdrawal of troops from a zone (others can be followed months later) will provide a powerful example for the rest of the country what comes in its own way.
Should war threaten the extraction in the region, US troops cannot always be sent back in. Irregardless, Iraqis understand that troops are not there to stay.
An approach two ears of an increase in troops, then a withdrawal can be only the key to exit Iraq successfully. The pressure on Iraqi politicians of a planned withdrawal may be the momentum that is required.
So the only option is to implement a gradual, public withdrawal of troops from Iraq. Ensuring that each area is relatively stable politically and militarily it is likely to arise a Iraq to tick each of the three preceding conditions.
Seth dog is a member of http://www.thugvillage.com and regularly presents articles there.