Next war does Somalia - new Base of Al Qaeda - America?

In the first 2 weeks of the Ethiopian imposition of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) government more than 1,500 people have been killed in fighting and, pro-rata the population, the country has seen the greatest displacement of people on the planet. Much of the fighting has involved an alliance of the Shabaab military wing of the former ruling Taliban-style, Islamic Courts and the dominant Hawiye clan against the Christian Ethiopian Army and small forces of the TFG. Now the fighting has spread to other centres outside of Mogadishu, where other clans and jihadists are active.

But much in the same way that the superior forces of US were initially victorious over Iraqi resistance, the Ethiopians, which are Africa's largest, most experienced and battle-hardened Army, has apparently quelled large-scale fighting for the moment. How long this can hold is doubtful and depends how much and for how long the leaders of Hawiye clan are welcomed or convinced to participate in power sharing with the TFG.

What is certain, however, is that despite heavy losses, the Courts and jihadists' forces are still intact and have dispersed around the country. They appear to be receiving supplies from Ethiopia's archrival Eritrea and foreign fighters are reported to be landing in the hundreds by aircraft in the countryside. They promise to cause as much if not worse trouble to the Ethiopians and the TFG as the US and Iraq government has faced at the hands of its insurgency. Indeed, the al-Qaeda led and inspired Somali jihadists threaten to spread their war and influence into neighbouring Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Kenya. Al-Qaeda now has another opportunity to turn Somalia into a training ground and centre for their expansion throughout Africa.

There are a number of important factors undermining any hopes of peace. In the first instance the Ethiopians are looked on as loathsome occupiers. The TFG is seen as their proxy power, which, furthermore solely represents the interests of the Daoud clan and is bent on revenge against the Hawiye. Moreover, the TFG has so far acted against the interests of local interest groups, particularly the Hawiye and the warlords, as well as private enterprises which have their own armies. Existing administrators have been largely excluded and replaced by cronies of the TFG. Many of these warlords and privateers learned to profit from anarchy and could be said to have an interest in continuing it, though in recent days there are indications that some tentative deals have been struck.

For the mass of the population, the only period in which they really saw peace and stability was under the strict Shira law of the Islamic Courts during the 6 months from June 2006 to January 2007. Brief though this was it can be looked by the people on as something of a "Golden Age" set against the last 16 years of madness. Weapons were removed from the streets, laws were applied and enterprises profited from the opening of trade with the re-establishment of the port and airport. Furthermore, the Courts, within which the Shabaab/al Qaeda group incubated, has largely retained its support network of private enterprises, mosques and schools, as well as its influence outside Mogadishu throughout much of Southern Somalia.

Their downfall was their declaration of jihad against the Christian-led regime in Ethiopia, but with suppliers and supporters throughout the region, in particular, the government of Eritrea, they remain a formidable force, which, because of their multi-clan nature, can generate support from across wide swaths of the population. One thing is certain the Courts and al-Qaeda are no more going away than their Taliban/ al-Qaeda counterparts in Afghanistan are.

Moreover, more is to come and there is clear evidence of a "Baghdadisation" of an already anarchistic situation, as the Shabaab increasingly mimics al-Qaeda tactics used in Iraq and now more frequently in Afghanistan. The traditional forms of combat have been heavy and small arms fire with the speciality "technicals" - pick up trucks or Toyotas with machine guns and antiaircraft guns mounted on the back. In April, however, Mogadishu saw its first spate of suicide bombings and car/truck bombings against Ethiopian soldiers as well as injuring residents. Similar events have now begun in outlying towns and it can be expected to spread to Ethiopia and other neighbouring countries in the near future. When Sudan became a base for al-Qaeda in the '90s embassies and airliners were attacked in Kenya and Tanzania. There are already reports of a radicalisation of the Muslim population in Kenya and it is likely that al-Qaeda will find greater influence and recruits there and among the various Ethiopian groups supported by the Islamic Courts. Today, there is a long-standing guerrilla war taking place in north eastern Kenya, there has been a brief insurgency in Djibouti and Ethiopia is awash with Somali and other separatist movements and insurgent terrorist organisations.

The Courts and Shabaab have a pan-Somali agenda, which calls for the unification of the Somali peoples dispersed in neighbouring countries and strong ties to separatist organisations like the Ogaden National Liberation Front (OLF), the smaller United Western Somalia Liberation Front (UWSLF) in Ethiopia, the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), plus Coalition for Freedom and Democracy, the Ethiopian People's Patriotic Party and Sidama Liberation Front. The OLF, which is fighting for the liberation of Somali territory in Ethiopia was recently responsible for the terrorist attack on an Ethiopian oil field that killed 65 Ethiopians and nine Chinese and involved 200 fighters.

Almost half of the Ethiopia population is Muslim, although ruled by Christians. The Somalis make up 6% of the population, the Sidamo 9% and the Oromo a huge 40%. Djibouti is 94% Muslim and 60% of the population are Somali. Estimates of the Muslim population in Kenya vary, but it is more than 10%. Tanzania is 35% Muslim, Zanzibar 99% and they are a majority in Eritrea. Ethiopia controls two Somali provinces, Somaliland and Puntland. Consequently the potential for pan-Somali irredentism, independence movements and pan-Islamic insurgency are considerable in the region. In the long term they could even threaten the break-up of Ethiopia itself and many surrounding countries.

At the moment after thousands dead, there is a temporary lull in the fighting and the Courts and the Shabaab regrouping. It cannot be ruled out that war weariness may temporarily triumph among the broader population for a period, despite their animosity to the invaders and the puppet TFG government. However, as one clan member remarked, just one shooting can spark an inferno between the clans and warlords, and the jihadists are certainly determined to wage an Iraqi/Afghan style assault on the present rulers. There is in effect a power vacuum, which cannot last. History abhors a vacuum as they say. And while the initial insurgent rush is over, there is certainly likely to be a new storming through the gates of hell, now that they have been opened. This will weave its way throughout the region. As Aweys, the leader of the Courts pronounced "we will leave no stone unturned to integrate our Somali brothers in Kenya and Ethiopia and restore their freedom to live with their ancestors in Somalia."

Lying between the tip of the Middle East and the edge of Africa, the Horn of Africa is of crucial strategic importance. It has been said that whoever controls the Horn controls the Persian Gulf and the oil routes. In justifying his invasion President Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia stated that the Courts' links to Al Qaeda "represent a direct threat first to Somalia and the Somali people, second to the region and Ethiopia and lastly to the international community."

For this reason, despite having burned its fingers in "Black Hawk" debacle, the US has been steadily building up a presence on the tip of Somalia. It has built a base in Djibouti with nearly 2,000 troops primarily involved in counter-al Qaeda activities. Most recently during the invasion, it attempted unsuccessfully to destroy the Shabaab leadership by a failed bombing mission. It cannot be ruled out that when the Ethiopians and African Union peacekeepers prove incapable of controlling the situation, the US could become involved in a far more substantial intervention in the country and neighbouring states.

Until now, with the exception of the super-exploitation of raw materials in a few countries, Africa been largely written off the profit and loss account of global capitalism. Millions have been and continue to be left to die of disease and hunger or ignored as they cannibalise themselves in orgies of self-destruction from Sierra Leone to Rwanda and now Darfur. Intentions are changing, however, because of oil reserves and to counter the growing influence of China in the continent. This will not benefit the masses of the people, as Nigeria bears witness, but is viewed as essential to protecting the economic and strategic interests of the superpowers. By 2015, it is estimated that the US will import up to 25% of its oil from Africa. Coupled with is the fear of social unrest and the spread of jihadism and al-Qaeda.

For these reason Africa has been put on par with the Pentagon's Pacific, Middle Eastern European Military Commands. Brainchild of Donald Rumsfeld, a unified command has been set up for US intervention in Africa in February 2007. "Africom" as it's called will help fight terrorism, defend US economic interests, compete diplomatically with China and help secure sea routes.

It is called a "unified combatant command" by the Pentagon and is headed by a four-star military general, unlike other regional commands. Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa, is being considered as one likely candidate for its headquarters in East Africa. This will beef up the Combined Joint Task Force- Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) at Camp Lemonier in Djibouti, and another programme called the Trans-Sahara Counter Terrorism Initiative (TSCTI) is carrying out the same activities in North Africa, providing anti-terrorism weapons and training to countries there.

Clearly, the US is making a qualitatively new turn towards Africa. While it remains ambivalent to the sub-human suffering there, it is highly concerned about it translating into jihadism and support for al-Qaeda across the continent, disrupting oil and other precious raw material supplies, as well as sea routes. At the moment with its hands full in Iraq and Afghanistan and the lessons of debacle there, its operations are largely surgical Special Forces intervention and weapons supplies and training of friendly regimes. But with the conflagrations breaking out there now, more major military adventures in future cannot be ruled out and are clearly being prepared for.

Stephen J. Morgan is a former member of the British Labour Party Executive Committee. A political writer, his first book was "The Mind of a Terrorist Fundamentalist - the Cult of Al Qaeda." He is a journalist and columnist for [http://www.thecheers.org/] magazine. His specific interests are political psychology and Chaos theory. He lives in Brussels (Old Europe) http://morgansreview.tripod.com/ Contact morganreply@yahoo.com

How the foreign policy of United States is doing the us less secure in the war against terrorism?

"And we fight today because terrorists want to attack our country and kill our citizens, and Iraq is where they are making their stand. So we'll fight them there, we'll fight them across the world, and we will stay in the fight until the fight is won." (Applause.) -- President George W. Bush

Despite plenty of muscular rhetoric, President Bush's strategy in the War on Terrorism demonstrates a dangerous ignorance of the unique military, tactical, and political aspects of the terrorist threat, and breeds a dangerous and chaotic foreign policy which has only served to put our nation in greater danger.

Back in the 6th century BC, in his classic, The Art of War, Sun Tsu observed, "Know your enemy, and in a thousand battles you will not be defeated." Sadly, our current Commander-in-Chief ignores the Chinese grand master's lesson, and actively eschews the acquisition of useful knowledge about our terrorist enemy. After the 9/11 Commission found that the CIA and FBI could have prevented the attacks of September 11th, had they only more effectively shared and communicated their intelligence to the White House, the Bush Administration could have ensured a dynamic and efficient system of American intelligence simply by reforming and/or streamlining the two agencies. Instead, the Administration did nothing to improve either agency, instead creating an entirely new government agency, the Department of Homeland Security, whose most obvious contribution to homeland security to date is a puerile, and now universally-ignored, color-coded Alert Level system.

Not surprisingly, the enhanced state of perpetual ignorance within America's intelligence community quickly took its toll, proceeding to deliver terribly flawed pre-war intelligence to the White House, which then spawned an utterly disastrous occupation of Iraq. All of this, of course, was in addition to our continued inability to capture, or even locate, America's Public Enemy 1, Osama bin Laden. Sun Tsu is rolling in his grave.

The atrocious ignorance continues with the Administration's inability to grasp the fundamental distinction between fighting terrorists and fighting enemy nation-states. In the wars of yesteryear, an enemy nation had a standing army, a native population, static boundaries, and permanent institutions, all of which helped to create an enemy who could be effectively destroyed with a sustained military campaign. But the problem with terrorists, unlike nationals of a belligerent foreign nation, is that they are not a permanent, distinct class. Terrorists are recruited, shaped, molded and trained by underground organizations, usually working without state sanction, and thus there is no fixed stock of "enemy combatants" capable of comprehensive military liquidation. As William F. Buckley, Jr. brilliantly observed, "Individual terrorists were, only yesterday, engaged in ordinary occupations, shocking friends and family when they struck as terrorists." Victory, then, will be achieved not with a specific death toll or geographic occupation, but by ensuring that Islamofascism remains a detested minority in every country in which it hopes to gain support. Victory is depriving the Islamofascists the ideological fuel with which they recruit the ordinary citizens to join the ranks of the jihad.

Terrorism itself is only a tactic of violence; it finds its roots in an ideology and thus cannot be defeated by military might alone. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelan, founded in 1975 in Sri Lanka as the first terrorist organization to make widespread use of suicide bombing, are amazingly still blowing themselves up as part of their independence movement there (talk about dedication!), simply because they are still not independent from Sri Lanka, and thus can still recruit their martyrs with an effective narrative of foreign oppression and victimization. The near-infinite willingness of a people to willingly slaughter themselves in an ideological protest against foreign occupation has been confirmed over and over, from the Algerian resistance to French occupation, to America's own experience in Vietnam.

Unfortunately, most of the fuel for the global jihad is supplied by current American foreign policy in the Middle East. It is true, as some allege, that Islamists hate nearly every feature of Western society, from our politics to our culture, and as a result, it is easy to say that Islamic terrorism against America is a fait accompli stemming from a fanatical worldview that hates everything we stand for. But while Islamists indeed harbor grand visions of world empire under Allah, their delusions of global theocracy have been swirling around the Middle East ever since Muhammad began claiming his divinity; only recently did Islamic terrorism emerge as a dangerous threat to America. As late as the 1950s, Arab nations still sought out American mediation in their international disputes, respecting our independence and fairness, despite presumably still harboring atavistic religious hatred toward Our American Freedoms. Seven decades later, Uncle Sam is reviled like no one else in the world.

Libertarians, like Ron Paul, rightly point out that the difference between the good ol' days of respect for America and the current days of Death to America is a U.S. foreign policy of interference in the Middle East. Rudy Giuliani and his supporters would like to believe otherwise. But nothing is more devastating in the obliteration of Rudy G's arguments than the facts.

Back in 1998, Cato Institute scholar Ivan Eland had already been looking at the facts, and as a result, he had already begun to note the growing trend of America's terrorist threat, corresponding directly and invariably with American intervention into the Middle East. Unlike both Bush and Clinton, Eland was already keenly aware of al-Qaida, Hezbollah, and their growing threat to American interests. (If only Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney read the Cato Institute.) Here are some partial excerpts of his prescient work, from his 1998 paper Does U.S. Intervention Overseas Breed Terrorism? The Historical Record:

July 2, 1915: The Senate reception room in the U.S. Capitol was damaged by a homemade bomb built by Erich Muenter, a former Harvard professor who was upset by sales of U.S. munitions to the Allies in World War I.

June 5, 1968: Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, former attorney general and senior policy adviser to President John F. Kennedy, was assassinated by Sirhan Sirhan, who had grown up on the West Bank and regarded Kennedy as a collaborator with Israel.

March 1971: A bomb exploded in a U.S. Senate restroom, causing extensive damage. The bombing came at a time of rising opposition to U.S. policies in Vietnam.

November 4, 1979: Supporters of the Ayatollah Khomeini seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran, Iran, capturing hostages that were not freed until January 1981. The embassy was captured as a protest against long-time U.S. support for the unpopular shah of Iran.

July 22, 1980: Ali Akbar Tabatabai, a former press counselor at the Iranian embassy in the United States during the shah's reign, was assassinated by the Islamic Guerrillas of America (IGA) after he had supplied U.S. officials with a manifesto of the IGA that advocated strategically planned terrorism on U.S. soil and assassinations of U.S. officials, stating, Any American can be targeted... no American is innocent... as long as U.S. foreign policies are to the detriment of the Islamic community.

April 8 and October 23, 1983: Islamic militants, funded by Iran and supported by Syria, suicide bombed the U.S. embassy and U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon, killing 290 people and wounding 200 more. The attack remains the deadliest post-World War II attack on Americans overseas. The Americans were supporting the Christian government in Lebanon against the Muslim militias by training and arming the Lebanese National Army. The U.S. Marines were later withdrawn from Beirut, prompting a Hezbollah spokesman to brag that the $martyrs! had finally forced the Marines out of Lebanon.

April 5, 1986: Libyan leader Moammar Qaddafi sponsored the bombing of the La Belle nightclub in West Berlin, which was frequented by U.S. servicemen. The United States retaliated for the La Belle bombing with air strikes against Tripoli and Benghazi, Libya. In retaliation for the U.S. air strikes on Libya, an American hostage in Lebanon was sold to Libya and executed; Libyans attempted to blow up the U.S. embassy in Lomé, Togo; a Libyan agent, Abu Nidal, hijacked Pan Am Flight 73 in Karachi, Pakistan, killing several Americans; The Japanese Red Army, under contract from Abu Nidal, planted a bomb at the USO military club in Naples, Italy, on the two-year anniversary of the air strikes, killing five; and two Libyan agents bombed Pan Am Flight 103, killing 270 people, 200 of whom were Americans.

March 10, 1989: A pipe bomb exploded beneath a van owned by the commander of the U.S.S. Vincennes, who had shot down an Iranian airliner over the Persian Gulf (killing 290 civilians) during U.S. participation in the $tanker war! against Iran. March 12, 1991: During the Gulf War, a U.S. Air Force sergeant was blown up by a remotecontrolled bomb placed at the entrance of his residence in Athens, Greece. $November 17!, the deadliest terrorist group in Greece, November 17, which attacks U.S. targets because of American imperialism-nationalism!, claimed responsibility for the attack.

February 26, 1993: A group of Islamic terrorists detonated a massive van bomb in the garage of the World Trade Center in New York City. The Egyptian perpetrators were trying to kill 250,000 people by collapsing the towers. Ramzi Yousef, the leader of the terrorists, said the intent was to inflict Hiroshima-like casualties to punish the United States for its foreign policy toward the Middle East. The perpetrators considered augmenting the explosion with radiological or chemical agents that would have increased the casualties.

April 15, 1993: Seventeen Iraqis were arrested as part of government plot to assassinate former president George Bush on a visit to Kuwait, in retaliation for the Gulf War against Iraq.

June 1993: Sheik Omar Abdul Rahman--a militant Egyptian cleric--and other radical Muslims conspired to destroy several New York landmarks on the same day. Funding for the operation apparently came from Iran and was funneled through Sudan, attempting to punish the United States for its policies toward the Middle East.

October 3, 1993: Osama bin Laden's operatives trained Somali tribesmen who conducted ambushes of U.S. peacekeeping forces in Somalia in support of clan leader Mohamed Farah Aideed, causing the death of 18 American Army Rangers, and the dragging of dead American soldiers through the streets of Mogadishu. An indictment of his followers alleged the United States--an $infidel nation!--had a nefarious plot to occupy Islamic countries, as demonstrated by its involvement in the peacekeeping operation in Somalia and the Persian Gulf War. The incident led to the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Somalia, which bin Laden called his group's greatest triumph.

November 13, 1995: A car bombing of a military complex in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia--which housed a U.S. military advisory group--killed 7 people (including 5 Americans) and wounded 42 others. Muslim militants seeking to topple the Saudi monarchy and push the infidel United States out of Saudi Arabia carried out the bombings. Three groups, including the Islamic Movement for Change, claimed responsibility. U.S. officials suspect that Osama bin Laden was involved....

We can fill in the rest. Years later, 9/11 ushered in the modern War on Terrorism, and Mr. Bush, with characteristic ignorance of the documented connection between American aggression in the Middle East and Islamic terrorism against America, only further augmented interventionist U.S. foreign policy. That the Bush Doctrine's geopolitical social engineering, especially in Iraq, has been such an unqualified failure is not a surprise to anyone who has read this article thus far.

Another obvious problem with the Bush Doctrine and its exportation of Democracy is that nearly every Arab Muslim lives in a Non- Democracy, and thus America's grand experiment looks, from the perspective of the common man, to simply be imperialist meddling with his local government. The Bush Doctrine, even if it somehow succeeded (i.e. when the "fight is won," perhaps), would only guarantee a Pyrrhic victory at best. With every terrorist mastermind captured in Iraq, dozens of martyrs sign up to avenge his death and battle the American Empire. Iraq itself wasn't even a haven for al-Qaida operatives until after America invaded it. While bin Laden, confirmed murderer of American civilians, roams the globe free, Mr. Bush is pleased that we've killed terrorist al- Zarqawi, whose horrific and disgusting attacks were all against America's presence in Iraq, never threatening continental America itself. The Bush Administration, it seems, is really only successful at capturing terrorists of its own creation. Sadly, U.S. interventionism Iraq itself wasn't even a haven for al-Qaida operatives until after America invaded it. The Bush Administration, it seems, is really only successful at capturing terrorists of its own creation.

Sadly, U.S. interventionism (Operation Terrorist Creation) is not limited to the occupation of Iraq. The CIA and NSA continue to interfere in the political affairs of various nations the world over, funding, training and assisting various anti-Islamic movements and governments, from the Caspian Sea to the Horn of Africa.

While such action may excite the intellectual tribalists in the neoconservative movement, the problem with such meddling is that the CIA-backed alternatives to Islamism, just like the CIAbacked alternatives to Communism, tend to usually be brutal nationalist dictators or military juntas, and are just as bad, or worse, than Islamism for the people we are supposedly "liberating." As a result, our intervention only enhances political oppression, civil unrest and poverty, which, studies show, then only serves as a breeding ground for Islamic extremism. The whole nasty process only further convinces the Islamic diaspora that America is waging a war on Islam. This is not how to win the hearts and minds of the world's people.

Our current policy, in its blind aggression and geopolitical ignorance, purports to fight terrorists "where they are making their stand," but it only serves to make them more effective and numerous. Thanks to the Bush Doctrine, radical clerics, government bankrollers, and their potential recruits can now all observe a visible military and political occupation to justify their ongoing resistance against the Great Satan. In these backward societies deprived of freedom of information and thought, radical Islamofascist rhetoric, combined with clear evidence of American global occupation, is sadly enough for terrorists to gain alarming popular traction, financial support, and willing martyrs. This mobilization of terrorists, potentially creating hundreds of thousands of jihadists, if America's belligerent foreign policy continues apace, is becoming the greatest threat the United States of America faces.

In intelligent recognition of this reality, America should immediately repudiate the Bush Doctrine and pursue a policy of intelligent disengagement. First, those terrorists and organizations which have committed or planned acts of aggression against the United States, such as al-Qaida, should be pursued with vigor; this is our most important mission and should be treated as such. Second, America must cease all nation-building, internal interference, and general military interventionism in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, in order to deprive terrorists of their fuel for jihad. Regimes, organizations and groups who do not threaten direct harm to the United States should not be the target of any U.S. military campaign. As we've repeatedly argued, the occupation of Iraq should immediately end.

As Americans, we all desire to win the war and to enjoy permanent security. But like Vietnam, Quebec, and Somalia, not all battles our government chooses to fight are winning ones; and like My Lai, Manzanar, and the Bay of Pigs, not all tactics our military prefers are desirable. An extension of that nugget of common sense dictates that as long as U.S. foreign policy glorifies the imperialist fallacies of neoconservatism, we libertarians will continue to rightly inveigh against it.

The Bush Administration's blind allegiance to aggression over knowledge perverts not only the lessons of Sun Tsu, but also the American Founders' original vision of a nation seeking only peaceful trading ties, the avoidance of entangling political alliances, and a national defense to respond powerfully only when directly provoked. The authentic patriot believes in these true American principles of intelligent self-defense, and knows that they alone can safely guide our nation through these troubled and dangerous times.

The author of The American Evolution, Matt Harrison is the founder and executive director of The Prometheus Institute, Los Angeles, CA, a nonprofit public policy institute. He has authored more than 200 articles and has been a guest on several talk radio shows and a guest blogger for CNN.

Implications of America's Withdrawal from Iraq

The Democrats have taken over Capitol Hill, and have a mandate to withdraw American forces from Iraq ASAP. It is likely that in the medium to long term, this move would have great impact on Israel

The elections held in the US last week revolved around a number of issues, but there is no doubt that chief among them was the war in Iraq. For three and a half years, the US army has been mired in Iraq. As may be recalled, the original objective of the war was to find and destroy non-conventional weapons developed by Iraq. But as time went on, it seemed these weapons were removed from Iraq, at some period before the war.

For this reason, and for many others, which we will explore in a different article, the war in Iraq has resulted in a major decline in the popularity of President George W. Bush and the Republicans. The Democrats, who criticize the war in Iraq and call for withdrawal, have won a majority of seats in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

In light of this, there is a possibility that the geo-strategic situation in the region will change. The Democrats speak of totally withdrawing American forces from Iraq, but have not yet presented a plan as to how they propose to do so. Scenarios range from immediate withdrawal over a short period, to a protracted, calculated move which will take a number of years to withdraw the 200,000 coalition soldiers from Iraq.

Regardless of the question of when the last Western soldier will leave Iraqi soil, Israel must prepare for the day and understand the implications for her.

The Glue Holding Iraq Together

Iraq is composed of three major ethnic groups, located in three different regions of the country. The Kurds, in the north, were the most oppressed ethnic group in the old Iraq. When weapons of mass destruction were not found in Iraq, President Bush and his supporters stated that the reason for staying in Iraq was to grant liberty to the Iraqi people. Of all the Iraqis, the Kurds are the main beneficiary of this liberty. The Kurdish people are concentrated in an area called Kurdistan, which covers an area from eastern Turkey, western Iran and northern Iraq. The Kurdish people have no independent state, though we can assume they would want one.

The Sunni Arabs are the ruling ethnic group. They are concentrated in the center of the country, including the capital of Baghdad. Saddam Hussein, the former and soon to be executed leader, is Sunni. With the fall of Saddam's reign, the Sunnis were the major force behind the continuing terror within the country, both against coalition forces and Iraqi citizens. The Shiite ethnic group resides in the south of Iraq, including the important port city of Basra. Naturally, the Shiites have strong ties with Iran.

These three ethnicities which comprise the Iraqi mosaic are held together only by the glue of the Western Coalition Forces.

What happens when this glue comes unstuck? Each group would approach foreign forces in order to survive. Therefore, those who stand to lose the most are the Kurds, as they have no support from a major power outside of Iraq. Once the Kurds are no longer relevant, the struggle will be between the Sunni and the Shiites, but it might not be the case. The strongest power supporting the Sunnis is neighboring Saudi Arabia. But Saudi Arabia, which seeks to normalize relations with the US as much as possible, would not easily support the Iraqi Sunnis after they launched such a massive campaign of terror during the war and after it. The Shiites, for their part, are obviously supported by Iran.

Islamic Circles

The Israeli intelligence community uses hierarchical terminology when describing the Arab countries around Israel. Thus, for example, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon are first circle countries. Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Libya are second circle countries. Iran is part of the third circle.

The first important consequence of the coalition withdrawal from Iraq would be the creation of an Islamic territorial contiguity, only separated from Israel by the weak Kingdom of Jordan. Increased Iranian influence, and its control, even if not physical, of events in Iraq might also affect the equilibrium of the Jordanian monarchy. At the same time, as we so painfully learnt in the Second Lebanon War, Iran is sending its tendrils into Lebanon, and has an alliance with Syria.

A non-independent Iraq, with American forces holding it, is a formidable obstacle to Iranian attempts to transport weapons to the forces fighting Israel. If this obstacle is removed, it would be much easier to transport weapons both to the West Bank and to South Lebanon.

Consolidated Campaign

Today, Iran is the unchallenged leader of the Arab war against Israel. Its power is only halted by the Iraqi wedge. Aside from the threat of weapons and knowledge being transferred to terror organizations, a US withdrawal from Iraq might cause a further consolidation of the alliance between Syria and Iran, as well as facilitate Iranian attempts to influence the Iraqi army.

This scenario compels Israel to ready itself for a situation we have not encountered for a long time - an all out war against a regular army. Since the Yom Kippur War, Israel has been waging its wars against semi-military guerrilla organizations.

Some military experts believe that in light of the political and strategic changes following the fall of the Soviet bloc, the era of wars between armies has ended. However, recent years have seen changes in Iran, Iraq, and North Korea, that might disprove this theory, and the West might be heading for renewed confrontation with the regular armies of its adversaries.

In this respect, we should understand the historical context of the two types of war - all out war and "sub-conventional" guerrilla warfare. Israel's wars have proven to the Arab world, that in conventional warfare, as developed by the West for generations, the Arab nations do not have a chance. Therefore, the Arabs adopted a new model of warfare to promote their strategic position - terror, guerrilla warfare, use of civilians as warriors, and shielding themselves behind civilians. The Islamic contempt for human life has only abetted the further enhancement of this process.

However, as the years went by, the Islamic revolution in Iran brought about the evolution of a regular army that has reached a technological level that no other Arab army has ever attained. The fall of the Soviet bloc and unemployment among Soviet military experts has led them to develop new weapons - with support from the Iranian army.

In recent years, the IDF has adapted itself to fighting the Palestinians. Low intensity combat doctrines were developed and implemented, mainly during and following the intifada. If Iraq were to fall and rise again, with Iranian support, the IDF would have to dust off the combat doctrines for all-out war, and train troops and commanders for proficiency in both types of warfare.

Jonathan D. Halevi, of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, revealed in an article he wrote, that the IDF has already begun to implement some of these lessons, amongst them reequipping itself with Merkava tanks, developing a strategic counter to rockets (likely the Nautilus system), expanding reserves training and cancelling the plan for an abbreviated regular service.

The Extreme Scenario: A Collapse of the Moderate Regimes

Israeli peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan, are not necessarily peace agreements with the Egyptian and Jordanian peoples. The agreements were signed with the leaders of the countries, because they served their interest of maintaining the stability of their minority regimes.

The gradual erosion of the peace agreement with Egypt is the result of a slow decline in Israel's contribution to the stability of the regime. Egypt is now supported by the US, and therefore allows itself not to enforce some of the passages in the agreement. While the Egyptian leadership maintains a neutral stance towards Israel, the Egyptian people hate Israel and do not bother hiding it. It would suffice to mention the fact that the bestselling books in Egypt, are actually nothing more than Nazi propaganda of World War II vintage, and that surveys paint a rather grim picture of the Egyptian attitude towards Israel. There is no assurance that, should radical Islam grow stronger with Iran's increasing influence, the moderate factors in Egypt, who are no friends of Israel either, would stick to their current strategy or remain in power.

The situation in Jordan is even worse. The Hashemite Kingdom is in fact a minority rule, when the majority in the country is actually Palestinian. Already, Jordan is a ticking time bomb, whose stability must be taken into consideration. With the withdrawal of the US forces from Iraq, forces of the Revolutionary Guard would replace them in the southern Shiite border of Iraq, at the border with Jordan. The Palestinian time bomb in Jordan would start to tick faster.

The impact on the moderate regimes in the first circle threatens, in the most extreme scenario, to return Israel to the situation which prevailed upon its establishment: a nation surrounded by enemies bent on its annihilation.

It is likely that the American leadership is aware of most of the scenarios described here. We can hope that the fact that the President of the United States remains a Republican, will moderate the measure taking shape, and that the American withdrawal will be undertaken in an intelligent fashion, allowing for continued regional stability.

"Omedia"
Ziv Maor is the security and foreign affairs, and Israel-UN relations commentator for "Omedia", The leading site in security and terrorism issues, focusing on the Middle East and matters concerning Israel.
He is also a former editor of IDF Infantry and Paratroops Gazette.

Obama Placates the Middle East at America's Expense

As everyone now knows, or should be for now, President Obama is an African American, the son of a Muslim father and a temporary resident of Indochina which is predominantly Muslim.

On the upside to this assumption is that it becomes much harder for the Islamic world him typecast as a son of the "great Satan", especially because his middle name is Hussein.

However, fair or unfairly President Barack Obama is receiving much praise filled him now by much of the Muslim world because chose the Saudi Arab-owned TV news channel Al - Arabiya that first make its formal television interview.

What is bad?

Well when give interviews to foreigners who are basically hostile to his country probably isn't a great idea to criticize their own country in the first place and secondly praise one who despises him, but that's what basically made Obama.

He said,

"All too often begins United States dictating and in the past some of these questions do not always know all the factors that were involved." So we are going to listen to. Well, here is what I think it is important. Watch the proposal which was proposed by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. You might not agree with all aspects of the proposal, but had great courage to present something that is so important. "I think that there are ideas in the entire region of how might continue us the peace".

United States was previously dictatorial and the Saudi King had been brave.

Obama came to say,

"But if you look at the record, as you say, America was not born as a colonial power, and that the same respect and collaboration that United States had with the Muslim world recently as 20 or 30 years ago, there is there is reason why we can not restore." And I think that it will be an important task. Which is why we want to do is listen to set aside some of the prejudices that have existed and have been built in recent years. And I think that if we do that, then at least there is the possibility of making some progress. But I think that you will see is someone who is listening, that is respectful and who is trying to promote the interests not only of the United States, but also people who now suffer from poverty and lack of opportunity. "I want to make sure that I'm talking about with them, as well as".

So although America made the following commendable things Obama gave the impression the United States to America haters only had been wrong!

-American saved Kuwait.

-He spoke against Russia on behalf of the Chechens.

-Tried to save Somalis.

-Bombed, Christian European Serbia to save the Kosovars and the Bosnian Muslims.

-It helped Afghans fight the Soviets.

-It is still struggle against the Taliban.

-Overthrew Saddam Hussein and is still fighting at Iraq.

-Invested billions struggle against the disease in Africa many of them is Muslim.

-With the aid of the victims of the tsunami.

And the list goes on and and Bush may show many things to his credit.

-The United States was not hit by terrorists for seven years.

-Nuclear proliferation from Pakistan were arrested.

-Libya renounced its nuclear program.

-Syria Lebanon mainly left.

-The leadership of Al Qaeda is scattered and less effective.

Over the nearly two years of political campaigns is understood implicitly that mentioned Obama second name and ancestry were misplaced.

Obama however does not feel limited by this tacit understanding, the own

"Now, my job is to communicate the fact that United States has an interest in the welfare of the Muslim world, the language that we use has to be a language of respect." I have Muslim members of my family. I have lived in Muslim countries. The largest one, Indonesia. So what I want to communicate is the fact that in all my travels throughout the Muslim world, what I've come to understand is that regardless of their faith, and United States is a country of Muslims, Jews, Christians, non-believers, who, regardless of their faith, all people have certain common hopes and common dreams.

The conclusion is presidents Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Bush all hard-working to promote peace in the Middle East, but among the main obstacles to peace are religious intolerance, illiberality, violent aggression and complicity in promoting terror by Syria, Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

The above-mentioned countries know only too well the role they have played for their own political reasons and Obama also know that he has been fixed since appease them with the disadvantage that most probably will make a bad situation much worse.

Items found in a vein similar to this can be found in http://www.ourchangingglobe.com/

The site offers articles with a different inclination on the politics and economics.

Different for the MSM - mainstream media!

Islamic Militants: America's First and Last War

Once again I am amazed by the accuracy of the Word of God, which states: "The last shall be first and the first shall be last" (Luke 13:30).

The "Barbary Powers Conflict" began shortly after the Revolutionary War and continued through the Presidencies of Washington, Adams, Jefferson, and Madison.1 The Muslim Barbary Powers (Tunis, Morocco, Algiers, Tripoli, and Turkey) were warring against what they claimed to be the "Christian" nations (England, France, Spain, Denmark, and the United States). In 1801, Tripoli declared war against the United States,2 thus constituting America's first official war as an established independent nation. Interestingly enough our first war as a nation was against Islamic militants. Two-hundred years later we are facing the same enemy. Thankfully this time our military might is prepared and ready. Let us however learn from history lest we repeat it.

Throughout this long conflict, the five Barbary Powers regularly attacked undefended American merchant ships. Not only were their cargoes easy prey but the Barbary Powers were also capturing and enslaving "Christian" seamen3 in retaliation for what had been done to them by the "Christians" of previous centuries (e.g., the Crusades and Ferdinand and Isabella's expulsion of Muslims from Granada4).

I apologize to Muslims for past human rights abuses committed against them by "Christians" who were not acting Christ-like but were most likely serving the imperialistic Roman church which was heretical. It was the Roman church that brought about the Dark Ages because the Bible was not translated into the language of the common man. Hence spiritual ignorance and darkness reigned, as did religious rulers who were without the Holy Spirit to reveal the heart of Christ to them.

In an attempt to secure a release of captured seamen and a guarantee of unmolested shipping in the Mediterranean, President Washington dispatched envoys to negotiate treaties with the Barbary nations.5(Concurrently, he encouraged the construction of American naval warships6 to defend the shipping and confront the Barbary "pirates"--a plan not seriously pursued until President John Adams created a separate Department of the Navy in 1798.)

Let us this time when facing Islamic enemies not act inhumanely as did the Roman church. Jesus exhorted us to love and pray for our enemies. This affords our enemies an opportunity to repent, reform, and be reconciled. On the other hand, in regard for military combat, let us arise to the challenge and not cower to Muslim militants threats and violence. Islam is intolerant and violent because spiritually it is impotent.

Christ Jesus came to establish His kingdom in the hearts of men, not to war for a political earthly kingdom. Nevertheless when necessary we must defend ourselves against hostile intruders and murderous Muslims who also misuse and distort their own religion as did the Roman Catholics during the Dark Ages for Christians.

Truly there is nothing new under the sun, as once again history is repeating itself as we approach the beginning of the end.

FOOTNOTES:

Special thanks to David Barton, Wallbuilders, for this outstanding documentation.

1.Naval Documents Related to the United States Wars with the Barbary Powers, Claude A. Swanson, editor (Washington: Government Printing Office, 1939), Vol. I, p. V.

2. Glen Tucker,Dawn Like Thunder: The Barbary Wars and the Birth of the U. S. Navy (Indianapolis: Bobbs-Merrill Company, 1963), p. 127.

3. A General View of the Rise, Progress, and Brilliant Achievements of the American Navy, Down to the Present Time(Brooklyn, 1828), pp. 70-71.

4. Tucker, p. 50.

5. President Washington selected Col. David Humphreys in 1793 as sole commissioner of Algerian affairs to negotiate treaties with Algeria, Tripoli and Tunis. He also appointed Joseph Donaldson, Jr., as Consul to Tunis and Tripoli. In February of 1796, Humphreys delegated power to Donaldson and/or Joel Barlow to form treaties. James Simpson, U. S. Consul to Gibraltar, was dispatched to renew the treaty with Morocco in 1795. On October 8, 1796, Barlow commissioned Richard O'Brien to negotiate the treaty of peace with Tripoli. See, for example, Ray W. Irwin, The Diplomatic Relations of the United States with the Barbary Powers (Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press, 1931), p. 84.

6. J. Fenimore Cooper,The History of the Navy of the United States of America (Philadelphia: Thomas, Cowperthwait & Co., 1847), pp. 123-124; see also A Compilation of the Messages and Papers of the Presidents: 1789-1897, James D. Richardson, editor (Washington, D. C.: Published by Authority of Congress, 1899), Vol. I, pp. 201-202, from Washington's Eighth Annual Address of December 7, 1796.

Paul Davis is a minister and author of several books including God vs. Religion; Breakthrough for a Broken Heart; Stop Lusting & Start Living; and Adultery: 101 Reasons Not to Cheat.

Paul is a life coach (relational & professional), popular worldwide keynote speaker, creative consultant, explorer, mediator, minister, liberator and dream-maker.

Paul's compassion for people & passion to travel has taken him to over 50 countries of the world where he has had a tremendous impact. Paul has also brought revival to many in war-torn, impoverished and tsunami stricken regions of the earth. His nonprofit organization Dream-Maker Ministries is building dreams and breaking limitations.

Paul's Breakthrough Seminars inspire, revive, awaken, impregnate with purpose, impart the fire of desire, catapult people into a new level of self-awareness, facilitate destiny discovery and dream fulfillment.

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