On 6 June, high representative of the Union for the foreign and political security policy, Javier Solana, presented the "5 ++ 1" of the Working Group (Great Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and United States) proposed aimed at seductive Iran to put an end to their illegal nuclear activities to the Iranian leadership. In response, pending a peaceful resolution of the nuclear confrontation of Iran were fired. Unfortunately, the real prospects of such an outcome did not.
On the surface, appear attractive incentives in the proposal. They include an affirmation of Iran "inalienable right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes", a commitment to provide Iran with reactors of the light water and a fast track for membership of the world Organization of trade (WTO) Iran.
It also provides sanctions for non-compliance. The sanctions include an international ban on the export of goods and technologies related to nuclear energy, a curb on industrial investment connected to these activities, a ban on the export of "unique"products to Iran and objections to the request for Iran to be a member of the WTO.
Unless Iran decides to act in good faith, this proposal could become a failed effort to Iran complies with its international obligations regarding its nuclear activities. Not having it. In its past relations with the international agency of Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has shown nothing but good faith. April 2006 of the agency report stated, "after more than three years of efforts of the Agency to seek clarity about all aspects of the nuclear program of Iran, the existing gaps in knowledge remain cause for concern..." Additional transparency measures... are still necessary for the Agency to be able to verify the scope and the nature of the Iran enrichment program,... and military alleged studies that might have a nuclear dimension. "Unfortunately, these transparency measures are not yet coming."
Incentives of the proposal or its sanctions are likely to be sufficient to complete the Iran nuclear program. Iran Pro-Khamenei daily Keyhan, which often speaks for the leadership of Iran, declared, "the announcement of the end of the nuclear fuel cycle takes three messages to the West." First of all, is that the language of the threat and the pressure is not instrumental to Iran. "Secondly, it turns out that Iranian scientists are so efficient that they can create extraordinary moments every minute, and finally the most important message was that Iran has joined the International Atomic club." In short, Iran believes that West is powerless to interfere with its nuclear destiny.
If this proposal is representative of the efforts of the West, Iran may be correct. Incentives of the proposal will not overwhelm the Iranians. Iran has greatly advanced its nuclear enrichment and reprocessing in the absence of international cooperation activities. In addition, Iran has seen its economy driven by the rise in crude oil prices, and their lack of participation in the WTO has not prevented their economic progress. With crude all but sure that remain among the most sought after products in the world for the foreseeable future, WTO members is not necessary that they Iran to expand its production and sale of crude oil.
The proposed sanctions are even more printing than their incentives. They truly lack teeth. A provision would not be stopping the ability of Iran to sell oil on the world market. However, it is the only penalty that could inflict significant pain in the economy and the Government of Iran. The last United States energy information agency data show sales account 80-90% of the export earnings of Iran oil. Oil revenue also funds 40% - 50% of the federal budget of Iran.
As a result, restrictions on international investment in the Iran nuclear power program are all but meaningless. Increase in oil revenues would provide an ocean of petrodollars that could frustrate the effectiveness of such measures. At the same time, precisely because Iran has made important nuclear progress of their own volition, restrictions on the sale of nuclear products and technologies do not show a strong deterrent either. Finally, the provision prohibiting the sale of "exclusive products" probably would be much more attractive as fodder for David Letterman that incentives for Iran to cease its illicit nuclear activities.
Finally, the proposal contains no provisions for verification. Without a robust verification mechanism Iran could easily deceive while at the same time benefit from the proposal. Iran could be used to guide of North Korea by bagging the benefits of the proposal while maintaining a secret nuclear weapons program. You could also try to initiate discussions, not about its nuclear activities, but the proposal itself, to buy additional time for nuclear research and development activities. In any case, emphasized that nuclear fuel activities are not negotiable and remain too expansive definition of what comprises this type of activity.
Everything has been said, the historical prognosis is not good. Once warned philosopher George Santayana, "those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it." If one looks back to the recent history, is a striking parallel between the proposal of the group "5 ++ 1" and the agreement framework Korea of the North agreed in 1994. This framework offered light water reactors to the North Korea, had ensured "cooperation in the field of the peaceful uses of nuclear energy" and reduce trade and investment barriers. About a year later, Korea the North launched its secret uranium enrichment program.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad remains committed to build Iran into a nuclear power. The development of nuclear weapons would provide the safest environment whereby the Ayatollah Khomeini's Islamic revolution could ensure his regime.
Worse still, Ahmadinejad has messianic visions of his being an instrument to facilitate the "return" of the "Hidden Imam" of the Shiites. At the beginning of his presidency, when confronted by provisions of budget costly, declared, "we have not reached for democracy." "We are here to prepare the way for the emergence of the hidden Imam."
According to Shiite tradition, appearance of the "magnet hidden" could put an end to the injustice of the world. For Ahmadinejad, this translates into a world without Israel and United States. In a speech at the "World without Zionism" Conference, Ahmadinejad proclaimed that the Muslims would not allow Israel to exist in the "heart of the Islamic world" and said that a world without United States and Israel was achievable. Nuclear weapons could lead to that world.
Against such expansive ambitions, the proposal of the group "5 ++ 1" is probably result in large part. Iran may pocket as well as the benefits it offers, but the absence of strong verification measures and significant sanctions, it is not likely to put an end to the search for nuclear weapons Iran. Instead, it could really provide diplomatic coverage under which Iran would continue a secret development of nuclear weapons while simultaneously benefiting from international assistance.
Don Sutherland has researched and written on a wide range of geopolitical issues.