Lebanon post-conflict analysis

During the recent conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert pledged that Israel "will insist on...fulfillment of United Nations Resolution 1559" which requires the disarming of Hezbollah, while describing the fight with Hezbollah as "a national moment of truth." President Bush added that, "our goal is to have a lasting peace--not a temporary peace, but something that lasts." Now that the major combat has ended with the unanimous adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and its resulting ceasefire, the question arises as to whether ground has been broken on path that could lead to "lasting peace" between Israel and Lebanon.

An examination of the immediate aftermath of the combat suggests that a more likely scenario is a return to the status quo ante in Lebanon. Hezbollah will not be disarmed and it will continue to receive assistance from its Iranian and Syrian patrons. Moreover, the risk of regional instability will have increased with Israel's doctrine of deterrence having been significantly eroded.

Although Resolution 1701 calls for "full implementation of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, and of resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006), that require the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon," such calls have been par for the proverbial Middle East course. On paper, everything was in order. On the ground, there was no mechanism or desire to attempt to disarm Hezbollah. Hence, Hezbollah grew into an armed "state within a state" in Lebanon.

Emboldened by its survival in the recent conflict, hailed by public opinion in the Islamic world, and bolstered by Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi's declaration that the UN's call to disarm Hezbollah is "totally unreasonable" and "illogical," Hezbollah is in no mood to disarm. Already, Hezbollah has rejected requests that it surrender its weapons to the Lebanese Army.

With Lebanon's Government dependent on preserving a delicate sectarian balance, it lacks both the determination and will to coerce Hezbollah to disarm. In response to Hezbollah's unwillingness to disarm, the Lebanese Cabinet indefinitely postponed its meeting concerning implementation of Resolution 1701. Instead, Marwan Hamade, Lebanon's communications minister could only promise that Lebanon would seek to find a "formula" for implementing the terms of the Resolution. Afterward, on August 15, Al-Hayat reported that the Lebanese Government was working on a compromise agreement that would permit Hezbollah to retain its weapons in south Lebanon in spite of Resolution 1701.

The United Nations is not likely to employ international forces to disarm Hezbollah. The international community has failed to disarm Hezbollah in the past and there is little indication that it would assume the risks necessary to do so at present. Consequently, a path has been laid for Lebanon to drift back to the status quo ante that preceded the conflict.

Even as Lebanon is more than likely to regress to a situation comparable to the one that prevailed prior to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, it will do so at a time when Israel's doctrine of deterrence has been significantly eroded. That will entail heightened risks of instability in the medium-term and beyond.

Israel went into the conflict with three military options:

o A minimalist approach: Entailed striking a few targets and ending military operations once those targets had been hit.

o A "middle" approach: Entailed carrying out a significant number of strikes and operations, but overall operations would fall well short of a full-scale invasion of south Lebanon or beyond.

o A full-scale ground invasion of south Lebanon: Such a move would likely have seen the IDF, backed by heavy air support, encircle south Lebanon to cut off Hezbollah from escape, and then direct is efforts at eradicating Hezbollah and its infrastructure from that region.

If there was a benefit to the minimalist approach, it was that such an option could be accomplished quickly. Afterward, with the IDF having hit its targets, few would question whether or not the IDF had a stronger capacity. Israel's doctrine of deterrence would weakened somewhat given that Israel responded in its usual limited fashion even as Hezbollah crossed a "red line" in carrying out its raid and abductions of Israel's soil. Given the level of uncertainty over what a major Israeli effort might have achieved, the erosion would have been modest.

A full-scale ground invasion of south Lebanon would have allowed Israel to destroy a significant portion of Hezbollah and its infrastructure. In terms of dramatically changing the geopolitical landscape and redefining Lebanon's relationship with Israel, that is the option Israel should have pursued.

The middle approach was the riskiest of all. It required a lot of accuracy and depended on early execution of its robust measures so that there would be sufficient time to achieve the operation's objectives. The margin for error was small and the stake high. Its inherent danger was that the IDF/IAF would not have sufficient time to score a decisive victory. If that happened or a ceasefire prematurely ended operations, then Hezbollah would be in a position to claim victory for having stood up to a fairly robust Israeli military operation. That is what happened. In response, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah declared that Hezbollah had won a "strategic, historic victory" and Prime Minister Olmert's declaration that the IDF's "strength is the main guarantee to preserving and defending our lives on this land" rings hollow.

Undoubtedly, Hezbollah has suffered damage. Its infrastructure had been hammered and its forces were slowly being peeled back at the time the ceasefire took hold. However, at the onset of the ceasefire, Hezbollah demonstrated it still possessed the means to continue fighting and launching rockets in a substantial way. As a result, Hezbollah achieved what no other Arab military force had ever before accomplished against Israel. It remained sufficiently intact to continue to fight.

Prime Minister Olmert's "Hamlet-like" indecision further undermined the already-risky middle approach by imposing lengthy delays before its execution. Based on the inconclusive outcome, perceptions concerning the Middle East's balance of power have continued to shift against Israel and the United States.

Israel has now suffered substantial damage to its ability to deter future acts of aggression. Strategic Forecasting Inc.'s George Friedman explained, "...the loss of the sense--and historical reality--of the inevitability of Israeli military victory is a far more profound defeat for Israel, as this clears the way for other regional powers to recalculate risks."

The inconclusive outcome will likely have ripple effects well beyond Lebanon even if Hezbollah ultimately disarms. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad proclaimed, "The myth of the invincibility of this contrived and decayed regime [Israel's Government] crumbled thanks to the faith and self-belief of Lebanon's Hezbollah." Syrian President Bashar Assad stated, "We tell them [Israelis] that after tasting humiliation in the latest battles, your weapons are not going to protect you - not your planes, or missiles or even your nuclear bombs ... The future generations in the Arab world will find a way to defeat Israel." Salim al-Huss, former Prime Minister of Lebanon, predicted, "I can tell you that some change will take place in the political and ideological realities, owing to the collapse of the myth of the invincibility of the Israeli Army." Palestinian political commentator Mustafa Sawwaf stated, "Israel's deterrence force is gone forever and this revives hopes in the Arab world of confronting Israel in the future. The war has also affirmed that Islam constitutes a real threat to Israel, which now realizes that its end is close despite the military power it possesses."

In the wake of the conflict, Israel is now confronted with the challenge of how to repair its eroded ability to deter aggression. On the political front, Prime Minister Olmert demonstrated that he is not a strong leader of the ilk of a Golda Meir or a Menachem Begin. That could well encourage Syria and Iran to push ahead with their anti-Israel objectives and their proxies to take further risks against Israel. The IDF/IAF is not likely to let the issue rest and there will likely be support within the Knesset for political changes. A failed ceasefire or dramatic retreat on the second UN Security Council resolution--it is likely to be watered-down and might never materialize and both outcomes would solidify a return to the status quo ante--could accelerate Israel's political change process.

In the end, the situation in Lebanon appears poised to evolve toward one that will closely resemble that which prevailed prior to the conflict. At the same time, with Israel's ability to deter aggression compromised by the inconclusive outcome, overall risks to regional peace and security will likely be higher than they were prior to the conflict.

Don Sutherland has researched and written on a wide range of geopolitical issues.

Iran waging a war in the Lebanon against Israel and the United States?

During the Cold War, the Superpowers never engaged in direct head-on conflict with one another. To have done so, might well have led to a chain of escalation that ultimately culminated in a nuclear exchange. Then, the outcome, even in victory, might well have resembled to "lose - lose" proposition, given the extent of devastation and loss of human life involved. Instead, when the ideological confrontation grew "hot", it did so in the more limited context of proxy wars, some of which were formidable in their own right, in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

The ongoing conflict being fought between Hezbollah and Israel, on to battlefield that extends across northern Israel's civilian centers and throughout most of Lebanon, may well be an early proxy war waged on behalf of to rising Iranian power. According to the May 11, 2006 edition of Al - Sharq al - Awsat Iran to views Hezbollah as "one of the mainstays of its strategic security." Hezbollah is one of the strategic and tactical weapons Iran employs against its enemies, namely the United States, Israel, and the West. Former Hezbollah Secretary-General Subhi Al - Tufeili explained as much when I revealed that Hezbollah's "real leadership is 'the rule of the jurisprudent' - in other words, Khamenei."

The developments leading up to Hezbollah's highly provocative step of abducting two Israeli soldiers from Israeli soil suggest that Iran might well have had at least an indirect role in initiating the act that led to the ongoing hostilities. On June 16, 2006, Al - Sharq Al - Awsat reported, "Well-informed sources in Tehran have told Al - Sharq al - Awsat that the talks held in Tehran between Syrian Defense Minister Hassan Turkmani and his Iranian counterpart Mustafa Mohammad Najjar did not only deal with military and security aspects of the strategic cooperation between the two countries, but also with the situation in Lebanon." At the time, there was no Israeli presence on Lebanese soil. The newspaper also noted, "Syria, on its part, has renewed its previous agreements with Iran which allow Iranian ammunition trucks to pass [through Syria] into Lebanon" to resupply Hezbollah. In short, at at time when the Lebanon-Israel border was quiet, Iran was discussing "the situation in Lebanon" with Syria and facilitating the supply of arms to Hezbollah.

Then, on July 8, multiple news organizations reported that President Ahmadinejad urged the Islamic world to take action to destroy Israel. Voice of America reported, "President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad spoke Saturday in Tehran at the opening of regional Conference of Islamic nations." He said the basic problem in the Islamic world is the existence of what I have called the Zionist regime. "He said the Islamic world must mobilize to remove the problem." Arguably, that was the "green light" for Tehran that Hezbollah was awaiting.

Following Hezbollah's act of aggression, Edward N. Luttwak, senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the Toronto Globe & Mail, "Iran's leaders have apparently decided to reject the Western offer to peacefully settle the dispute over its weapons - grade uranium-enrichment program..." Evidently, Sheikh Nasrallah felt compelled to serve Iran's strategy. "Aside from the multimillion-dollar monthly subsidy it provides, Iran is the spiritual homeland of Hezbollah leaders, some of whom have studied in Iranian religious schools."

Since the onset of fighting, Iranian media organizations having close ties to its ruling conservative clerics have used the outcomes to date to validate perceptions of Israeli and American weakness. Such commentary has argued that Israeli "invincibility" has ceased to exist, Israel is weaker than it was 40 years ago, and that Israelis are abandoning Israel.

On July 13, yi-Jomhuri Eslami wrote of Hezbollah's raid, "Israel's security network is now damaged and this will lead to more pressure on Israel's government." Five days later, it proclaimed, "[N] ow that the Hezbollah has shown its military superiority it proves that all of America's plans have been nothing more than a mirage and they have to tolerate the bitter taste of defeat again." On July 20, Resalat claimed, "Following the inefficiency of the Zionist regime in dealing with Hezbollah's activities the myth of Israel's invincibility has come to an end..." "Shelling Israel's cities by Hezbollah has started to trend of reverse immigration from Israel and the people are leaving the occupied lands."

Such commentary has also attempted to elevate Iran's role against the rest of the Middle East as spokesman for the "world of Islam" and to proclaim the birth of a new Middle Eastern order arrayed against the United States and Israel. On July 20, pro-Khamenei daily Kayhan dismissed Saudi Arabian and Egyptian criticism of Hezbollah stating, "The rulers of Saudi Arabia and Egypt can't talk on behalf of themselves and their people but not on behalf of the world of Islam or even Arab people."
Separately, the Kayhan explained what it saw as a new emerging geopolitical order in the Middle East:

American and Israeli groups are furiously confused. They have understood very well that their big Middle East plan has turned into a series of explosive traps against themselves. If Iran was alone in the past, gradually the triangle of Iran, Syria and Lebanon was formed. Now Hamas has turned this into a square triangle. And the establishment of the principle-ist government in Iraq after it has turned into a pentagon. This pentagon represents the new coordinates of the Middle East.

Iran's geopolitical calculations suggest that the stakes in the outcome in Lebanon are too great for Iran to allow Hezbollah to be "defeated". Therefore, if Iran is involved in any part of the ceasefire/peace process Iran will likely insist on a ceasefire from which Hezbollah would gain, whether it would be Hezbollah's retaining its ability to function as an armed group in Lebanon or realizing its initial demand for a "prisoner swap." At the same time, it would likely seek to thwart any deal if it cannot leverage gains for its nuclear weapons program.

Such backing will likely embolden Hezbollah and its backers within Lebanon preclude from accepting compromises that would diminish Hezbollah's capabilities. Hence, if Iran has its way, on ceasefire would preserve Hezbollah, if not allow it to make gains, while failing to meet Israel's core need for security. After all, why would Iran seek to accommodate Israel's core needs when, according to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Israel is a "fake state" that should be eliminated. In fact, Iran's commentary views the outcome in Lebanon as a potential downpayment toward that end with Keyhan, another Khamenei-affiliated periodical, describing it as "a big opportunity to demolish Israel."

All said, the ongoing fighting between Israel and Hezbollah might well mark Iran's proxy war with Israel first and the United States. Given the geopolitical ramifications involved, it probably won't be the last such conflict and future ones could be even deadlier as more powerful weapons and technologies are injected into the mix. Therefore, if the international community seeks regional stability and peace, it will need to work toward a decisive settlement with Lebanon's leaders to eliminate Hezbollah as an armed element. It will also need to work energetically toward translating any ceasefire agreement into a full peace treaty between Israel and Lebanon. Otherwise, Lebanon will all but certainly become the host of combat in future proxy wars waged on behalf of Iran, and its people will experienced renewed suffering as a consequence.

Don Sutherland has researched and written on a wide range of geopolitical issues.

Do the lesson of the Lebanon lost, once free and prosperous (and 54% Christian) - following EurArabia?

The country of Lebanon was formed from part of the Ottoman Empire, which ruled the Middle-East for four centuries prior to World War I; After that, it was part of the Mandate Area set aside by England and France for the settlement of Jews and Muslims - it was established as an independent country after World War II. Eleven predominantly Christian (54% to 44% Muslim), in the mid-sixties it became Gaia despite the lack of oil resources, bustling with activity, construction of apartments, hotels and tourism - almoç the highest living standards of any Arab country in the world. Its capital, Beirut, grew from 450 thousand to 1.25 million persons (about 50% of Lebanon's population); the country was proud of Beirup being called "Paris" of the Mid-East.

Then came the disastrous consequences of a country that forgot its purpose for being - to protect its citizenry – a country out of control, official incompetence and corruption; religious and political factions contesting authority everywhere, revenging grudges: political-religious-extremist groups running amok, funded by external Arab regimes; the Lebanese militia destroying five UNRWA camps, breeding grounds of resentment and hatred, putting down rebellion (leaving 11 camps from the original 16 A camps with their hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees); the "Identity-Infidel killing raids" of Lebanese Christians by Lebanese Muslim extremists (identity cards divulging one's religion) - then flights to safety by those Christians able to flee, or going into hiding; the influx of thousands of terrorists into Lebanon from Jordan, after its Black September, killing thousands of the PLO; similar forced dumped-evictions of extremists from Syria; then rocket attacks from Lebanon's borders onto Israel by PLO and Hezbollah terrorist groups - with eventual (Israel Defense Forces) IDF retaliation raids to root them out - then IDF equipping and training to Lebanese Christian Force to defend its Christians, and to create a border buffer zone against rocket attacks upon Israel future - then to "revenge" by the Lebanese Christian Forces against Lebanese Muslims, killing hundreds at camps of Sabra and Shatilla (Israel, uninvolved in the inter-religious chaos and killings of tens of thousands above, is faulted by the world for not restraining the Lebanese Christians).

The life of Ms. Brigitte Gabrielle, now an American citizen, author and speaker (on Islamic terrorism and Lebanon) - from her age ten to teens - was witness to the end of Lebanon's Christian life. Her statements tell the story:
She grew up hearing talk about religion and politics. discussion was anti-Israeli, equating Israel and Jews with the devil. She attended a private Christian school.
She describe Palestinian atrocities against Christians. She says that the Palestinians would park their tanks and cannons in front of their bomb shelters and launch rockets at Israel, then drive away, knowing that Israel would fire back and hit the Christian bomb shelters.
She says, "My home in Lebanon was destroyed by shelling;" I lived in an 8 X 10 - foot bomb shelter for seven years between the ages of 10 and 17; "I ate grass to live, drank dirty water from a nearby spring and spent evenings in candlelight, covering my ears from the sound of bombs exploding around me."
She says, "Once, at age 13, I went to bed dressed in my Sunday best because I wanted to look pretty for burial if I was killed by the Muslims." "My only crime was that I was a Christian in what was once the only predominantly Christian country in the Middle East - before Islamic Jihad took hold and turned it into a terrorist haven."
That night her life was saved by the Israeli invasion to the Litani river. She lived four years "protected" by the presence of the IDF.
She says, "The Israelis came into Lebanon to liberate them in 1982, because Hezbollah had joined with the Palestinians." Her mother was wounded in the shelling, taken to a hospital in the village tended by an Israeli doctor and two Israeli nurses, then taken in an Israeli ambulance to Israel for medical treatment. (She was then to teenager.)
At the hospital, IDF helicopters brought in Israeli casualties - she expected an angry reaction against her and her mother - but an Israeli nurse took her around, "don't worry, we'll take care of your mother". She cried, tells herself, "These are people of compassion I want to live with."
Relating the experience of kindness at the Israeli hospital, she says that she broke down sobbing because she had "experienced civilization for the first time in my life." After 22 days at the Israeli hospital, Gabriel and her mother return to Lebanon.
Gabriel moved to Israel in 1985, got a job as a news anchor at Middle East News, speaks fluent English, French, Arabic and Hebrew. She now lives in America.

Today, Ms. Gabrielle's message is for the "politically correct" in America and Europe, who seem not to comprehend the happenings to Lebanon and their causes:

She says, "Why didn't the US media show more of the beheadings of Daniel Pearle and others - so people would understand what truly gratuitous cruelty is."
Her memories are even more horrible: Christian mother with her young are tied to her lap - forced to cut off his h - d; perhaps even worse, Christian father and mother, each leg of their baby strapped to their waists - then they are pulled apart!
She says, "We are constantly told that Islam is a religion of peace, that only a small percentage of Muslims are killers." Where is the proof? "Do Perhaps they can't speak out in Arab countries, but here in America they can - where is assurance from moderate Muslims that Islam will let us live in peace in our own Christian countries?"
She says, "The 1988 Hamas charter to destroy Infidels teaches, from their Mosques, how Muslims can demand rights, then take over countries - protected by democratic principles of Christian-majority countries."
She says, "Osama bin Ladin was one of 53 children, have himself had 27 children." "Where is any concern in the 'politically correct' Western democracies such birth rates about - as we open our country's gates?"
She says, "is Where are the Islamic voices of sanity - for peaceful co-existence of our culture and religion with Islam?" Are there any? "And if not - her message is - wake up Europe and America, see what happened to Christian Lebanon"!

Note: To complete the history of Lebanon regarding its religion, present information is that its Muslim majority population is now at 60%, increased from 44 per cent only several decades ago, thus the Christian percentage has dropped from 54% to 38%.

Aaron Kolom qualifies as a "rocket scientist" with over 50 years aerospace engineering: Stress Analyst to Chief of Structural Sciences on numerous military aircraft, to Corp. Director Structures and Materials, Ibbotson. Chief Engineer Space Shuttle Program through first three flights (awarded NASA Public Service Medal), Rockwell International Corp.; Program Manager Concorde SST, VP Engineering TRE Corp.; Aerospace Consultant.

Aaron l. Kolom - from Brainwashed ** and Miracles **

** The Perceived Mind-Set of the Secular Elite re Darwin Evolutionism!

** To Believe in Them - Have Faith - In Science and Logic!

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